Monday, May 02, 2016

Looking Ahead to Thursday's Elections.

First Assembly Election hustings I've attended in the canteen at Welshpool Livestock Market this morning. Felt sorry for the candidates. So much noise they needed a mic or voices like foghorns.  Thought 'my' two boys did OK. Russ George now looks the part of a seasoned politician, and Plaid's Aled Morgan Hughes, to whom I am related coped well with the background noise - even if I should upbraid him for cracks about "You can choose your friends, but you can't choose your family." Mostly all agreeing that motherhood and apple pie are approved of. But disagreement over culling badgers as a Bovine Tb control. Plaid, Ukip and Welsh Conservatives think Yes, while Lib Dem and Greens think No.

My first hustings of the election got me thinking about what to expect on Thursday - across Britain as well as in Wales. Normally, six years into a Conservative-led/Conservative Govt, and my party is in the midst of a thunderous gloves-off battle over the EU Referendum vote, Labour should be making huge gains. But it looks not to be so. In most of  Thursday's elections, labour looks a mess - probably losing ground - especially in Council and Scottish Parliament elections. Labour losing ground in Wales too, but voting system means they will still be dominant party. Our One-Party-State in Wales still alive and kicking. Polls tell us Labour candidate for Mayor of London may win. Hard to believe. Some things are beyond my understanding.

UKIP will probably do well on Thursday, helped by the publicity and focus on the EU that the Referendum has conveniently arranged for them. They are likely to have a significant presence in the Welsh Assembly. One of the AMs serving my area is likely to be former MP, Neil Hamilton. Plaid seem to be doing OK, according to the polls. We'll see. And Lib Dems will win a few Council seats to just about hang on as a mainstream party.

Thursday is a tough ask for the Conservatives. Parties in government usually struggle after 6 years of power. But it's looking quite good. Ruth Davison winning great reviews in Scotland. We may well make some Council gains across England. But in Wales, the Additional Member voting system means UKIP list success may well impact on us. Anyway I'm off out now with Russ to knock on a few more doors. That's the thing about elections. We all try to do our best.

Sunday, May 01, 2016

The EU Referendum 'Farming Vote'

"I'd best start thinking about my EU Referendum vote this week, if I'm going to write a blog post about which I'm going to vote on Friday. I had said on the day the Referendum date was known that I was not going to decide on my vote until after the Welsh Assembly election on May 5th. The Welsh General Election is hugely important to Wales, and it's been over-shadowed by the Referendum. It's my little personal protest. Makes me feel better even if it has no effect whatsoever on anyone else!

Tomorrow morning there's a Assembly Election 'hustings' in Welshpool Livestock Market. Hoping to go down and sit unobtrusively in the back where no-one will notice me listening in. Daresay there'll be a question to the candidates about the referendum. Over the last few weeks, I've been involved in a few discussions about how farmers will vote. As far as I can judge, the farming vote is split down the middle.

This is a bit of a surprise to me. I'd expected the farming vote to be for 'Remain'. At Westminster MPs in the 'Remain' camp tell anyone who will listen that the NFU voted to Remain - as if that's it. Well it's not it. Yes, leaders of the farming unions are for 'Remain', but most farmers I talk to are for 'Leave'. It's like a lot of other sectors. The 'establishment' is for 'Remain' but that counts for much less than it used to. The 'establishment' has become a term of disrespect - and not just in UK. Interestingly, the Farmer's Weekly announced the result of a poll of readers in it's last issue. 58% voted to 'Leave'. I've seen, heard and read nothing which suggests to me that the farming vote is anything but split down the middle.

One reason I had assumed farmers would support 'Remain' was the payment many of us receive under the CAP. I still run my own farm business. But farmers worry about democracy and sovereignty like every other sector (except these would not be the precise words used to express their concerns). I assumed that the perception that French farmers would fight harder for financial support for farmers within the CAP than UK Govts would carry influence (whether true or not). This was certainly how it felt a few years ago, but not sure it's the case now. Another reason why I thought farmers would back 'Remain' was access to EU markets to sell into. Personally, I don't buy this at all. But some do. Anyway, maybe hundreds of Montgomeryshire farmers will come up and tell me what they think over coffee in the canteen tomorrow. But even that's not straightforward. Experience informs me that the 'Remain' side will be happy to tell me, while the 'Leave' side just keep their thoughts to themselves !

UPDATE The Farmers Weekly poll was taken over a recent 10 day period. There were 577 responses - enough for it to be a significant poll. 58% voted to Leave and 31% voted to Remain. As with all polls of this sort, it depends who goes to the trouble of responding, and whether there was some campaigning activity we don't know about. But I do think it's fair to maintain that the 'farming vote' is split down the middle.

Friday, April 29, 2016

Differing interpretations of compassion.

"So many corpses are now being washed up on the shores of the Mediterranean that they have stopped making the news". That's how Fraser Nelson begins his excellent article about desperate people (incl children) seeking refuge in Europe in today's Telegraph. I had decided to write no more on this issue, but this article so closely reflects the view I've taken since the beginning of the Syrian conflict that I just had to draw readers attention to it.

People smugglers work under the radar. They don't issue press releases and photographs to make life easy for the media. They don't want to 'make the news'. They prefer to be out of sight- and out of mind. It's one of the greatest new evils of our time. "It's grown to become a huge industry worth about £4 billion a year. This trade in human lives is greatly helped by the prize dangled by panicked politicians that those who survive the journey, and end up on European soil will be granted Asylum. It's a promise born of compassion, but has helped to lure hundreds to their deaths."

Like Fraser, I consider any criticism of our Prime Minister on this issue to totally misplaced. No country has done more to alleviate suffering in Syria, and across the world than the UK. No Govt has made a greater commitment to international help - in the face of constant enemy fire from UKIP, the Daily Mail and others. No politician I've worked with has shown more compassion to desperate people in foreign countries under threat than David Cameron. Britain is giving £2.3 billion to those fleeing war in Syria. The Royal Navy is doing what we can to save people  from the waters of the Mediterranean when the traffickers promises lead to thousands stranded at sea, or in the sea. The UK has given more aid than the rest of Europe put together.

Fraser uses well researched numbers. Syria has 5 million refugees. There are another 7 million displaced from their homes in Syria, forgotten and ignored by the world. These desperate people don't 'make the news'. In Jordon, there are 600,000 Syrian refugees in desperate need. They don't 'make the news' either. The UK Govt is committed to taking 20,000 refugees from the Syrian border. And last week announced we will take another 3,000 unaccompanied children from the area who are on the United Nations 'at risk' register. This is the far and away the most effective, humanitarian, compassionate response - even though I personally would support an increase in the 20,000. 

If politicians bowed to demands from the House of Lords and opposition MPs that the UK take unaccompanied refugee children from France, I would not be desperately distressed. It may help some people. But I do know it would not be the best response to a truly awful situation. It would be allowing compassion to be overtaken by pragmatism and public pressure. It would be to satisfy a demand "to make the news".

Thursday, April 28, 2016

Prejudice.

"Nothing is either good or bad, but thinking makes it so". I don't know who said this (could have been the great bard himself) but I've always thought it to be very true. Two people can use the same words, but the context and tone can attach different meaning and different levels of prejudice to them. It's also the case that the meaning of words have changed over time - where what was entirely acceptable 50 years ago is today deeply offensive. Its also true that accusations of prejudice are made against people, where no prejudice exists, because no prejudice was meant. It's not straightforward. I'm always very careful before accusing anyone of prejudice. I feel that I have to assess what they were thinking to know if it was good or bad.

But sometimes there is no doubt at all. Today's performance by Ken Livingstone was truly awful. I have many friends in the Labour Party. They must be absolutely appalled. Thank goodness for John Mann MP who let him have it 'both barrels'. I've always found anti-semitism to be the worst prejudice of the lot. Perhaps this is because I've taken a lot of interest in the Second World War, and the particular evil that was Hitler. I really hope we never see Ken Livingstone given any sort of prominent position or public platform again.

"Bombing Syria"

When discussing the Syrian refugee tragedy over the last few days, I quite often hear the comment "Well you voted to bomb Syria" - as if it was linked to the refugee crisis. Reality is that British involvement in the Syrian conflict has been entirely positive in reducing the refugee problem. And as a point of fact, no MP voted to "Bomb Syria". Let us consider what has actually happened, rather than what is said to have happened.

In late summer 2013 MPs were recalled in the summer recess to debate whether the UK should respond militarily to the use of poison gas against his own people by Syrian leader, President Bashar al-Assad. It was widely thought we were going to be asked to give authority to bomb Damascus. At the time I asked as many constituents as I could reach what they thought before deciding on my approach. On the Monday, I travelled to Westminster expecting to vote against my Govt for the first time. This issue was more important than party loyalty (which I also think is very important). I could not see how firing rockets into Damascus would improve the tragedy that was unfolding in Syria. In the event several other MPs must have taken the same view, because when the motion we were due to debate was made public the night before the debate, it did not give authority to make any military strike. It condemned Assad, spoke of an intention to launch military action, but crucially required another vote of MPs to give authority for action after a stronger case for it was made. It specifically did not give authority for military action. In my view, and shamefully, Ed Miliband decided to put forward an alternative motion which, in effect, said much the same thing in - dividing the House. In the event both amendment and motion were defeated. The Prime Minister announced immediately there he had received the message of the House and would be no strike against Damascus. At the time, I thought to end consideration of the issue to be a mistake, though it may be that time has shown it not to be. Though you never be certain about what might have been!

Since the summer of 2013, Daesh, an appalling murderous group of terrorists has prospered, taking over large parts of the Middle East, including Syria. Daesh is truly evil and must be defeated. (I refuse to use the term Islamic State, regarding it as an insult to Islamism). Daesh is a threat to the world, recognised by almost every country in the world - including Putin's Russia. And then year, MPs did vote (by a huge majority) to give authority to pursue Daesh into Syria, and play a part in defeating these terrorists by cutting off supplies to their front line. To describe the UK's military support as an "attack on Syria" is bizarre. The reality is that the UK decided to act militarily against the enemy of Syria. And with much success. Daesh has now retreated significantly, alongside effective involvement by Russian forces. 

Of course the conflict has not ended, and there remain uncertainties. Daesh are reported to be moving activities to North Africa. No doubt there will be other votes and much disagreement about best way forwards in the future. And no doubt there will be mistakes. The only point of this post is to paint an more accurate background to UK military involvement in Syria, and challenge the incorrect notion that MPs voted "to bomb Syria". 

Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Why I oppose taking Syrian refugees from France

Over the last few days I have received 31 email from constituents critical of my opposition to the UK Govt, allowing 3000 unaccompanied refugee children to enter the UK from France. Those sending these emails accuse me of acting shamefulIy and inhumanely. There has also been a vitriolic deeply offensive campaign of abuse on Twitter expressing the same views. I disagree with this criticism. I think it is not based on even a basic understanding of the issues involved. Now I'm not that bothered about the Twitter trolling, but I have written a standard response to the 31 constituents who have contacted me by email. And I've posted it here.

"I have been considering the proper response to the refugee situation in Syria for months now. It is the worst refugee problem I've ever known, and probably ranks second only to World War Two.  It's why I've discussed it with politicians (Conservative and Labour) who gave been out to the refugee camps on the Syrian border, where there are millions of refugees surviving in the most appalling conditions. In Syria itself, hundreds of thousands have been murdered, sometimes by poison gas. We're told 10 million Syrians have been displaced from their homes and around 40 towns the size of Malada are besieged and being starved to death. 500,000 being starved to death!! This is why I've believed the UK must do everything possible to help them. The best support the UK can give is to use the international aid budget to help in the camps. The UK is incredibly generous. I am very proud of this.

I've also believed the UK should offer a home to some of the refugees, and was saying so well before it featured as a leading item on UK News. Though I accept what we could do would be no more than an example to the world rather than anything having more than a minuscule impact. 

But I have never supported the UK taking refugees from France or other European countries. Bearing in mind how much abuse I and other MPs have received by taking this view, it would have been far far easier just to take 3000 unaccompanied children from France. But I also know it would be totally wrong. It would be setting aside my clear judgement about the best humanitarian response, just for an easier life. That is not what an MP should. We are elected to do what's right.

France is not a third world country. France is a modern compassionate European country, similar to the UK. Syria is a war zone, where refugees and children are living under constant threat of death, in truly appalling conditions. Any willingness by the UK to take in refugees should be focused entirely on the Middle East and North Africa. That is the best humanitarian response. And it's also the case that taking refugees from France will inadvertently give encouragement to the refugee traffickers and criminal gangs sending desperate people across the Mediterranean, putting their lives in great peril. It did not need a photograph of a dead Syrian boy on a Mediterranean beach to tell me that. I already knew that. 

If the Govt position changed, to accept Lord Dubs latest amendment, it would indeed make life easier for me. And of course it would be welcomed by refugees in France. But it would be wrong. It would be totally wrong. It would be running away from responsibility in the face of criticism. I simply cannot do that. Sorry this has been such a lengthy email.  
Best wishes, Glyn"

Friday, April 22, 2016

Best Care for Vulnerable Refugee Children in Europe.

This is a very difficult post to write. It's a politician's responsibility to consider long term consequences alongside instinctive short term humanitarian responses. Doing what is right can sometimes not be the same as that which constituents are calling for. Responding to the plight of vulnerable refugee children in France (and other European states) is just such an issue, and a major challenge for our Government.

Like many MPs I have received emails, perhaps 30 or so (mostly as part of a lobbyist's campaign) asking that I pressurise the Government into giving vulnerable unaccompanied children who are currently in France a home in the UK. And vote accordingly. I'd love to agree, but I cannot, because it would be the wrong thing to do.
 
I have long called for the Government to allow more Syrian refugees into the UK. And long before a photograph of a little boy drowned on a beach touched our national consciousness. I accept that we have to be very wary of terrorist sympathisers taking advantage of the 'cover' provided by refugees, but I do think we could and should do more. Many people disagree with me on this issue. 

However, I do want to acknowledge that the Govt has listened to calls from MPs, the House of Lords and the public about the relocation of unaccompanied children from within Europe. The Govt tells me it has considered how best the UK can provide assistance and protection to unaccompanied refugee children from Syria and other regions of conflict, and to those already in Europe.

Identifying and responding to the needs of vulnerable and at risk refugee children must be a clear priority for any government. The starting principle must be that the best interests of children are put first, and any policy that places children at additional risk or encourages them to place their lives in the hands of the people traffickers and criminal gangs must be avoided. In any response, it is vital not to inadvertently create a situation in which families see an advantage in sending children ahead, putting their lives at risk by attempting perilous sea crossings to Europe. We must never inadvertently help the criminal traffickers.

Since the beginning of the conflict in a Syria, my view has been that the UK should respond to the desperate tragedy arising from conflict in MENA (Middle East and North Africa) by taking in more refugees. Even though any resettlement programme by the UK can only make a minuscule impact on a humanitarian problem of such a scale. I am pleased that the Govt has just announced the launch of a new resettlement scheme to resettle ‘Children at Risk’ from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. It's important that we set an example to the world. But let us not pretend it's anything but a drop in the ocean. There are millions of refugees in camps on the Syrian border. They are huge numbers being slaughtered or just starved to death. There are 10 million displaced Syrians. It is a tragedy almost beyond comprehension.

On the UNHCR’s recommendation, the new UK scheme will not just target unaccompanied children, but will extend to all ‘Children at Risk’ as defined by the UNHCR. And it will extend to 'at risk' groups and nationalities within the region, not limited to Syrians. Through this category the UK will resettle the most vulnerable children accompanied by their families where the UNHCR deems resettlement is in the best interests of the child. Several hundred individuals will be resettled in the first year. 3000 will be resettled over the lifetime of this Parliament, most of them children. This will be in addition to the resettlement of 20,000 Syrians under the Syrian resettlement scheme already agreed.

There are several other UK initiatives as well. For example, experts in dealing with people trafficking will be sent to Greece to support vulnerable groups, including children. This will ensure that vulnerable people, including children, are identified and can access asylum procedures as quickly as possible. This is in addition to the work undertaken by the Anti- Slavery Commissioner, Kevin Hyland, to visit hotspots and assess what more can be done to ensure unaccompanied children are protected from traffickers.

And the Department for International Development (DFID) has created a £10 million Refugee Children Fund specifically to support the needs of vulnerable refugee and migrant children in Europe. This will be used to support the UNHCR, Save the Children and International Rescue Committee. The overall aim will be to help children reunite with family wherever possible.

I fully support Government action to tackle the global refugee crisis, in particular by helping children at risk. And I fully support taking action where it has the most impact in region. I agree with all those who have emailed me about the importance of helping vulnerable children, and offering more opportunity to come to live in the UK. But the greatest need by far is to help vulnerable children in the MENA region. 

UPDATE The House of Commons comfortably defeated what is called the Dubs amendment which proposed bringing unaccompanied refugee children into the UK from France. I have received genuinely offensive communications from a few who seem not to realise the amount of thought and preparation which supports my position. I do think the Dubs amendment has helped the position, leading to Govt willingness to work with the UN to take in more refugees from the camps, where millions are living in appalling conditions. I cannot support taking refugees in from France, which is a sympathetic country, inadvertently giving encouragement to traffickers sending refugees to death in the Med, at the same time as moving our focus from the millions being killed, starved in camps on the Syrian border. And if Im to be condemned for that, so be it.

Tuesday, April 19, 2016

What is 5th Carbon Budget.

Its so easy to fall into the trap of using acronyms and language only a tiny minority of people can understand. No-where is this more prevelent than in Climate Change/Energy speak. So from time to time I'll try to explain an issue is ultra simplistic language. Today's phrase is 'The Fifth Carbon Budget'.

The 2008 Climate Change Act, one of the most important acts passed during the 13 yrs of Labour Gov't committed the UK to reducing carbon emissions by at least 80% compared with 1990 levels. This is a very big ask, which needs a complete rethink about how we live. In order to ensure current Gov't's accept responsibility for this today, the 2008 Act requires Gov't to set 'carbon budgets' in law with specific emissions reduction targets (stepping stones sort of) for each 5 yr period leading up to 2050. These 'carbon budgets' are progressively more restrictive caps on emissions. Gov't is currently working on setting the 5th Carbon Budget to cover the period from 2028-2032. The Act requires Gov't to set 'carbon budgets' by 30th June in the 12th year before the beginning of the period in question. The means setting the 5th 'carbon budget' by 30th June this year.

There are two parties involved in negotiating the precise carbon emissions targets - the Government on the day and the Committee for Climate Change. There is a formal timetable in the process of setting the binding target. The carbon emissions reduction anticipated during the 5th Carbon Budget is likely to be about 58% below 1990 levels. 

Hope those who didn't know much about this issue now know what we are talking about when reference to carbon budgets crop up in conversation.!